Our guess on BREXIT


We’re predicting the British exit from the EU in a roundabout manner this time. If you’d like more background on how Tweetsense generally works, check out our story on the 2015 Chicago Mayoral race. While last time we set the engine to look for everything about Rahm and Chuy, we decided to cast a bigger net this time and search for anything remotely related to the EU referendum issue.

The search terms we used were “stay” vs “leave”, and searched for those words which were in the same post as events such as “Brussels terrorist attack”, “Tusk issuing EU compromise plan”, “First EU summit discussion”. We didn’t really know where to draw the line, but we also knew that didn’t really matter, as long as we picked about 12-15 relevant terms, we knew we probably had a good enough relevant set of opinions which represented the true population while not being too broad on what was searched. As I’ve said before, the best thing about surveying with sentiment analysis is that it’s much easier to get a true random sample since there is no bias in terms of question phrasing (because there are no questions being asked!).

The graph below is our prediction as of about 3 pm on June 21. We predict Britain will leave the EU. Popular opinion says otherwise, but everyone is entitled to their opinion. We’ll be presenting this result at Techweek Launch in Chicago. We’ll stand behind our product in full confidence.

List of raw data here. It has been excluded from this post for aesthetic reasons.

Listening vs Asking

It’s just a fact, people hide their true feelings when asked. It’s natural so why do we expect intrusive people who call us during our only lunch break to bring about honest public opinions? Tweetsense does not stoop to the level of spamming or selling names for information. We believe that everyone’s opinions are important, not just the person who was raised in a wealthy family and writes to congress every week, but also the person advocating for better education in their city on Tumblr. People’s voices are stronger when you listen, instead of just hearing what you want to hear from someone.

Want a free poll?

Shoot us an email at [email protected] . If you fall under our criteria as a charitable startup, we’d be happy to do a poll for you for free no strings attached! You can also send an email if you’d like the ability to run as many polls as you want with custom data with one of Tweetsense’s official plans.


Author Convey

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